Ku wa gatandatu taliki ya 12 Ukwakira 2012, ku cyicaro cy’umuryango w’ubumwe bwa Afurika  Addis Abebba muri Ethipia, ibihugu bya Afurika ntibyabashije kumvikana ku masezerano yo kwitandukanya n’urukiko mpanabyaha rukorera I La Haye mu Buholandi. Mbere gato y’iyi nama, amakuru yakomeje guhwihwiswa ko Afurika izahita icana umubano n’uru rukiko bitewe  ngo n’uko rudaha icyubahiro Abayobozi b’Abanyafurika. Iki kibazo cyazamuwe n’uko uru rukiko rwatangiye kuburanisha Visi Perezida wa Kenya Bwana William Ruto ku birego by’ubwicanyi bwabaye nyuma y’amatora yo mu mwaka wa 2007. Undi uteganyijwe gukurikiranwa ni Perezida Uhuru Kenyatta na we uregwa iby’ubwo bwicanyi.

Bimwe mu bihugu bya Afurika bisanga umuntu ukiri mu mirimo y’ubuyobozi atagombye gukurikiranwa, mu rwego rwo kubaha abamugiriye icyizere. Abandi bo basanga biramutse byemejwe bitya kwaba ari ukongera gushishikarira Abaperezida bakoze ibyaha kutarekura ubutegetsi. Reka dufate urugero: Mu ntambara Museveni yarwanye mbere y’uko afata ubutegetsi, yishe abantu benshi mu karere ka Luwero kugira ngo abigereke kuri leta yariho. Nyuma yaho kandi yicishije Abenegihugu bo mu majyaruguru ndetse abasahura inka zabo ashingiye ku ngengabitekerezo y’uko nta bundi bwoko bwigeze bworora inka uretse ubwo akomokamo bw’Abahima. Imyaka ibaye 27 Museveni ari ku butegetsi kandi aracyashaka gukomeza. Biramutse byemejwe ko yakurikiranwa kuri ibyo byaha, Museveni yakora uko ashoboye kose ngo atazavaho kugeza apfuye. Uru rugero umuntu yarufata no kuri Paul Kagame ufite ibyaha biruta iby’ingurube.

Tugarutse ku nama yo kuwa 12 Ukwakira, igitangira ibihugu byacitsemo ibice bibiri, igice kimwe gishyigikiye ko Afurika itakongera gukorana n’urukiko, ikindi gishyiikiye uru rukiko. Igice cyashakaga kuva mu rukiko kigizwe n’ibihugu bya Algeria, Ethiopia, Ghana,  Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda na Zimbabwe.

Igihugu cya Kenya kivuga ko cyababajwe n’amagambo yavuzwe mu gihe urubanza rwa Ruto rwatangiraga. Ayo magambo yavuzwe n’umushinjacyaha yasabaga ko Kenya yashyiraho umusimbura wa Ruto kugira ngo imirimo y’urukiko itazabangamirwa. Kubera aya magambo, Kenya yasabye ibindi bihugu bya Afurika kuyishyigikira ngo kuko inkoni ikubise mukeba bayirenza urugo.

Ibi rero biragoye kubyemeza ibihugu biyoborwa n’abaperezida batagira icyo bikeka. Kuri bo ni nko guca wa mugani w’injangwe yacitse umurizo. Ngo umunsi umwe injangwe yagiye kwiba inkoko ifatwa mu mutego uyica umurizo isigarana akanifu. Kuva icyo gihe yagize ipfunwe kuko aho yanyuraga hose izindi zayisekaga. Ni uko yigira inama yo gutumiza izindi ngo zigirane ikiganiro. Mu gihe zaganiraga, izindi zari zatembagaye kubera ukuntu iyacitse umurizo yasaga. Ni uko injangwe yacitse umurizo irahaguruka iti: “Bavandimwe ndashaka kubagira inama. Burya imirizo yacu iratugora cyane rwose, cyane cyane nk’iyo tugiye kwifatira imbeba( yanze kuvuga ko ijya ifata n’inkoko) hari igihe tuzunguza umurizo maze imbeba zikamenya aho duherereye. None njye nasanze ari byiza ko nawuca kugira ngo njye mbasha gukora operation nta kibazo. Nkaba nagiraga ngo namwe munkurikize”. Izindi zarasetse cyane zikomeza kuyinnyega ziti “wavuze ko wagiza insanganya ( accident)! None urashaka kudushuka ngo natwe duce imirizo yacu kandi ntacyo idutwaye.

Umuntu agenekereje yasanga Kenya hamwe n’ibindi bihugu biyoborwa n’abicanyi byaravugaga biti: “Bavandimwe Banyafurika, ruriya rukiko ruratugora cyane rwose, cyane cyane iyo tumaze kwiyicira ibiturage ( batuka abaturage) dukurikiranye ubutegetsi cyangwa se twiyibira imitungo mu bindi bihugu. Twe ku bwacu twasanze icyemezo cyiza ari ugukuraho ruriya rukiko kugira ngo tujye twikorera ibyaha ntawe twikanga. None turagira ngo namwe mudukurikize”.

Ibihugu bivuga igifransa byo bisanga kwitandukanya n’urukiko bikwiye gukorwa igihugu ku gihugu bidakozwe mu kivunge. Byasabye umuryango w’ubumwe bw’Afurika gushyikiriza iki kibazo umuryango w’Abibumbye.

Ibihugu bya Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Mali na Burkina Faso byemeza ko ruriya rukiko rufite akamaro cyane kuko umuryango w’Ubumwe bw’Afurika utajya wihutira gukemura ibibazo by’amakimbirane ku mugabane. Aha bavuze nk’ikibazo cyo mu Burasirazuba bwa Congo, ikibazo cyo muri Nigeria cya Boko Haram, n’ibibazo biheruka muri Mali aho umuryango w ‘ibihugu bya Afurika wananiwe kugira icyo ubikoraho mu maguru mashya. . Botswana nayo yunze mu ry’ibi bihugu mu kwemeza ko n’iyo abayobozi bakiri mu kazi batakorwaho, hadakwiye kubaho gushyigikira ubukozi bw’ibibi.

Umunyamabanga mukuru w’umuryango w’abibumbye yahamagaye buri mu perezida ku giti cye abasaba ko batakwitandukanya n’amasezerano ya Roma yashyizeho ruriya rukiko, anemeza ko azakora uko ashoboye ngo amasezerano asubirwemo.Twibutse ko umuryango w’ibihugu by’Afurika byahaye umuryango w’Abibumbye kugeza ku itariki ya 12 Ugushyingo ngo igisubizo kibe cyabonetse, bitaba ibyo, hagafatwa ingamba zikakaye, izi ngamba benshi bakeka ko zaba ugusezerera ruriya rukiko.

 Dukomeze tubitege amaso.

 Chaste Gahunde

On a recent visit to Tanzania’s commercial capital, Dar es Salaam, I was eager to engage my hosts on this issue of the on-and-off marriage between Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.

With the ‘courtship’ on more than a decade now, the feeling has been that the East African Community affair should be taken to the next level.

But Tanzania has seemed politely hesitant – to put it mildly. The first major signs of the escalation of the tensions came in June.

Tanzania’s ‘big man’ Jakaya Kikwete (they call him JK) was preparing for one of his biggest days in office – hosting the president of the United States. Uganda’s YK Museveni, Rwanda’s Paul Kagame (PK) and Kenya’s Uhuru Kenyatta (UK) decided to have their own meeting to discuss East African matters.

Cynics suggested UK, YK and PK were just sourgraping after they were snubbed by the big boy from Washington.

But since then, Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda have become a bolder ‘coalition of the willing’. As we have reported, they have even flirted with the idea of doing their own thing and leaving out the foot-dragging Tanzanians.

And so, I wondered, do ordinary Tanzanians concur with Kikwete?

For Elly, a university lecturer, the issue is simple: many of his countrymen are genuinely sceptical, for good reason. First, both Kenya and Uganda, and even Rwanda, speak a lot of English whereas Tanzania is mostly about Kiswahili.

Some people, Elly tells me, think that further opening up their country could mean more loss of jobs, as new investors are likely to be swayed by the advanced language skills from the north.

Land is another critical factor. Elly speaks of fear that Rwandans, Kenyans and Ugandans are eying Tanzania’s land. It means, therefore, that JK’s expulsion of Banyarwanda immigrants in northern Tanzania, in August, while it raised eyebrows abroad, was not unpopular at home.

Sam, a lively civil society type, is particularly keen on a conversation about regional integration. It is, he says, his favourite dinner topic with his East African ‘brothers’. They need, he often tells them, to first step back and understand where Tanzania is coming from and why it is cautious.

First, Sam says, unlike the countries eager to rush into a marriage, Tanzania is already in a union. Lest it be forgotten, the country is a union of two nations – Tanganyika and Zanzibar, with the latter also having its own parliament and president.

That union has come with its own challenges, with simmering political tensions between the majority CCM party and the CUF in Zanzibar which stands for anything between ‘greater autonomy’ and secession. So, the Tanzanians are saying, “wait a minute; go slow”. They do not want to invite more trouble than they already have.

There are other issues too, Sam says, such as the big investments Tanzania has made into its Southern African Development Community (SADC) ties. Its economy is much more integrated with countries like Zambia and Malawi – not to mention the Asians that the Indian ocean effortlessly brings in.

The country, Sam says, needs to be given serious reasons for ‘rushing’ into this East Africa thing, when things are going well with SADC. In fact, Sam believes that if YK, UK and PK insisted on a union without Tanzania, Kenya would be the biggest loser – as its industrial products would lose a ‘favoured’ status, and become less competitive.

Employing organisational theory, Sam argues that some people are what he calls choleric’, in that they want things to happen quickly and urgently. While risky, choleric people are good for the energy they inject into things. But, he warns, if an organisation has too many choleric people, it can crash, as it will take too many reckless decisions.

In this case, therefore, Tanzania sees itself as the soberer, calmer, wise head trying to force her colleagues to think carefully before rushing in. The Congo conflict also features on Dar es Salaam’s bar menu.

It is claimed that through SADC, Tanzanians have landed on documents inside Congo, suggesting a deeper involvement of Rwanda in Congo than has previously been thought. These documents, one fellow said, have even been translated into English and could be unleashed if Kigali continues to play hard ball.

So, asks Sam, how can Tanzania trust Rwanda and Uganda in East Africa yet there is a risk of fighting them in Congo?

It leaves you thinking that the dynamics of the East African union have somewhat changed. The marriage, it seems, would now be between the ‘choleric coalition’ and the bride that is Tanzania.

And for now, she won’t be rushed. She seems to be saying: “Either we marry in my time and on my terms [possibly with Burundi as the bridesmaid], or you can forget me.” The debate on integration is, therefore, a test of character for the ‘choleric coalition’.

A strategic man could cede some ground and lose a battle, to win the war of the bride. Your ‘typical’ type would tell the woman to go hang.

The author is the editor of The Observer.

Source:http://www.observer.ug/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=27976:tanzania-understanding-the-reluctant-east-africans&catid=83:staff-writers&Itemid=60