Category Archives: Economy

Kako Nubukpo : « Pourquoi les dettes africaines reviennent toujours ? »

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TRIBUNE. Les annonces d’annulation de la dette africaine se succèdent depuis le début de la pandémie du Covid-19, comme un rituel d’exorcisme de la pandémie.

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Kako Nubukpo

Les chiffres donnent le tournis : les ministres africains des Finances et l’Union africaine demandent un allègement immédiat de la dette de 44 milliards de dollars et la constitution d’un fonds supplémentaire de 50 milliards de dollars pour faire face au report du paiement des intérêts de la partie non-annulée de la dette africaine. Après le FMI et la Banque mondiale, le G20 et le président français Emmanuel Macron ont annoncé un allègement massif de la dette africaine. Même le pape François a réclamé dimanche dernier lors de sa bénédiction pascale « Urbi et Orbi » l’annulation de la dette africaine. De quoi ce bel unanimisme est-il l’expression ? Pourquoi les dettes africaines reviennent de façon récurrente dans le débat international comme l’illustration de la compassion du reste du monde à l’endroit de l’Afrique ?

Au départ, une vision de la solidarité pour le développement

Le monde de l’après-Seconde Guerre mondiale s’est construit sur l’idée que les pays riches devaient aider les pays pauvres à impulser leur processus de développement, en finançant l’écart entre les besoins d’investissement de ces derniers et leur faible épargne intérieure. Le schéma fut celui du plan Marshall qui a permis à l’Europe de financer sa reconstruction et d’enclencher la période faste dite des Trente Glorieuses, qui prit fin avec la première crise pétrolière de 1973.

Cette vision de l’aide connut d’autant plus de succès qu’elle était d’une simplicité désarmante – l’appui financier dédouanait de l’effort d’appréhension de la complexité des spécificités institutionnelles – et semblait obéir à une logique de gains mutuels dans la mesure où des pays aidés renouant avec la prospérité économique deviennent de facto des partenaires commerciaux florissants : « La marchandise suit l’aide. »

L’Afrique n’échappa pas à cette doctrine portée au pinacle par le FMI et la Banque mondiale et illustrée par une série de plans successifs d’allègements de la dette : le plan Brady, le plan Baker, le plan Kissinger, etc. du nom de secrétaires d’État américains successifs, jusqu’à l’Initiative en faveur des pays pauvres très endettés (PPTE) qui a permis au début des années 2000 d’effacer massivement la dette africaine.

L’implacable réalité pour l’Afrique

La logique derrière l’allègement de la dette est implacable : pour que l’Afrique soit un véritable partenaire commercial, c’est-à-dire pour qu’elle puisse acheter des biens et services en provenance du reste du monde, il faut qu’elle puisse disposer de marges de manœuvre budgétaires et des ressources privées suffisantes, la fameuse capacité d’absorption. Mais pour que sa capacité d’absorption fût préservée, il fallait régulièrement effacer sa dette dont le service (remboursement d’une partie du principal et des intérêts) plombe sa capacité à s’insérer harmonieusement dans le jeu commercial international. Les annonces actuelles d’annulation des dettes africaines n’échappent pas à cette logique, dans un contexte où l’après-crise de Covid-19 s’annonce difficile pour les économies du monde développé et émergent.

Pourquoi la dette persiste-t-elle ?

En revanche, relativement peu de gens se posent la question de savoir pourquoi les dettes africaines reviennent toujours, pourquoi l’Afrique n’arrive pas à se sortir de la spirale infernale du surendettement. Or, c’est dans la réponse apportée à cette question structurelle que réside une véritable émergence du continent africain :

Le premier facteur explicatif de l’endettement africain récurrent est le taux de pression fiscale (rapport entre les recettes fiscales et la richesse créée au cours d’une année) en Afrique subsaharienne qui est structurellement bas, inférieur à 20 % du produit intérieur brut (PIB), alors qu’il se situe au-delà de 40 % dans le monde développé. Or, ce sont les ressources fiscales qui constituent l’essentiel des recettes des États, leur permettant de financer les dépenses publiques. Qui dit donc taux de pression fiscale élevé, dit a priori bonne couverture des dépenses publiques par les recettes éponymes.

Le deuxième facteur explicatif du surendettement est le niveau structurellement élevé des taux d’intérêt réels en Afrique, souvent plus du double du taux de croissance économique ; or, quand vous empruntez à un taux d’intérêt supérieur au taux de croissance économique, il y a peu de chances que vous puissiez rembourser votre emprunt, vu que le rythme de création de richesses (le taux de croissance économique) est plus faible que le coût d’acquisition des moyens de création de richesses (taux d’intérêt). Ce raisonnement est aussi valable sur le plan microéconomique que macroéconomique. Résultat des courses pour les États africains, les flux de déficits s’accumulent et se transforment en stock additionnel de dettes en fin d’année budgétaire.

Le troisième et dernier facteur (le plus structurel) est l’étroitesse de la base productive africaine. L’Afrique ne se décide toujours pas à produire elle-même ce qu’elle consomme. Elle se complaît dans la place qui lui a été assignée dans la division internationale du travail, à savoir exportatrice de matières premières dont les recettes sont volatiles et moins élevées que les prix des biens et services qu’elle importe massivement pour faire face à sa forte demande sociale, conformément à la loi dite de Prebisch-Singer. Le résultat de cette insertion primaire de l’Afrique au sein du commerce international est l’accumulation de déficits dits jumeaux, à savoir le déficit budgétaire et celui du compte courant de la balance des paiements.

Une approche inadaptée parce que d’un autre temps

Au final, l’annonce de l’annulation massive de la dette africaine ressemble à s’y méprendre à la prédominance de recettes anciennes pour faire face au nouveau monde. L’Afrique d’après le Covid-19 ne peut accepter de jouer un jeu dans lequel elle sortira une nouvelle fois perdante, car les mêmes causes produiront les mêmes effets.

Des dirigeants qui détournent massivement les aides et prêts à eux consentis par la communauté internationale qui, tel le Tartuffe de Molière, détourne pudiquement les yeux de la mauvaise gouvernance chronique des économies africaines. Peut-on décemment se glorifier d’effacer une dette africaine dont les montants n’ont que très peu aidé l’Afrique ? Peut-on applaudir les mauvais élèves au détriment des bons élèves, qui péniblement tentent d’assainir leurs finances publiques année après année, mettent en place le contrôle citoyen de l’action publique et ont à cœur la poursuite de l’intérêt général ? L’allègement de la dette ne doit pas se traduire par une démobilisation générale de l’Afrique qui lutte au quotidien pour sa dignité et sa souveraineté, cette « Afrique d’après » que nous appelons de nos vœux. Il ne doit pas servir à récompenser les « passagers clandestins » de la bonne gouvernance.

L’économie politique de la compassion internationale ne peut être la voie privilégiée de l’émancipation africaine. Méditons ensemble ce proverbe qui dit : « La main qui donne est toujours au-dessus de la main qui reçoit. »

https://www.lepoint.fr

 

World Bank applauds Tanzania on Anti Corona Policy response; Warns African countries copying Western Anti- COVID 19 Policies

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The World Bank Group has applauded Tanzanian unique approaches to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.

Thanks President John Magufuli for not duplicating policies implemented in advanced countries and some middle – income as pasted by some African countries in the region.

The Africa’s Purse report titled as “assessing the economic impact of COVID-19 and Policy Responses in Sub-Saharan Africa” released today has commended Tanzania as one of the best examples for its strategic approaches that considers the best of its political economy and well-being of the society.

With 32 COVID- 19 confirmed cases, 3 deaths and 5 recoveries, Tanzania unlike other African countries has not locked down businesses and its citizens. The country has not also closed its borders but initiated strict testings and 14 days quarantine to all arrivals.

The WB report warns catastrophic consequences to sub- Saharan countries that have copied and pasted anti COVID- 19 policies.

“Facing a fast-changing situation with great uncertainty and so many unknowns, most governments around the world have resumed to similar approaches to contain the COVID-19 pandemic”, the report states.

The report mentions South Africa, Ghana, Rwanda, Kenya, who have reacted quickly and decisively to curb the potential influx and spread of the COVID-19 virus very much in line with emerging international experience.

The report warns these countries that as the situation evolves, there are more questions about suitability and likely effectiveness of some of these policies such as strict confinement.

It advises African governments deploy a series of emergency measures and structural features of African economies that shape the policy responses that are designed and implemented to fend-off COVID-19.

The World Bank has given multiple reasons why economic policies implemented in Sub-Saharan Africa should be different from those adopted in advanced countries and (some) middle-income countries.

First, informal employment is the main source of employment in Sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for 89.2 percent of all employment (ILO 2018). Excluding agriculture, informal employment accounts for 76.8 percent of total employment respectively.

Based on the number of entrepreneurs (own-account workers and employers) who are owners of informal economic units, the vast majority of economic units in the region are informal (92.4 percent).

Informal workers lack benefits such as health insurance, unemployment insurance, and paid leave.

Most informal workers, particularly the self-employed, need to work every day to earn their living and pay for their basic household necessities.

A prolonged lockdown will put at risk the subsistence of their households.
Additionally, the majority of workers hired are in a precarious situation, and most of these jobs are temporary and with low remuneration, do not offer social security, and put workers at a greater risk of injury and ill health.

Second, small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), an important driver of growth in economies across the region, account for up to 90 percent of all businesses and represent 38 percent of the region’s GDP.

Access to finance is one of the main challenges facing SMEs in normal times with the majority of these firms lacking the finance needed to grow.

Prior to COVID-19, the finance gap for SMEs in the region was estimated at US$331 billion (IFC 2018).

Third, concerns about the negative economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak prompted interest rate cuts in several African countries in line with monetary policy actions around the world.

However, this type of monetary stimulus may not be effective for two reasons: (1) the prevalence of supply effects at the height of the containment measures (i.e. reduced labor supply and closed businesses, especially in contact-intensive sectors), and (2) the weak monetary transmission in countries with underdeveloped domestic financial markets.

African economies still need to design policy pathways to achieve sustainable growth, economic diversification, and inclusion.

The economic sustainability of African economies depends on their ability to transform their depleting stock of natural wealth into other reproducible capital assets such as physical capital, infrastructure, and human capital.

The findings on the impact of Covid-19 on African economies drew on two economywide models: a macro structural model, the World Bank Macroeconomic and Fiscal Model, “MFMOD,” and the World Bank global dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, “ENVISAGE”.
The analysis built on two scenarios.

The first an optimistic scenario which is based on the assumptions that the pandemic peaks in advanced economies such that containment measures are gradually removed in the next two months, the pandemic fades in China, and outbreaks are contained in other countries and in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The second is a downside scenario that assumes that the COVID-19 outbreak continues to weigh on the economy in the third and fourth quarters of 2020 and into 2021, as some social distancing measures are required to keep the spread of the virus at manageable levels.

Zambian Observer

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Rwanda: Opposition , Civil Society advise Kagame on COVID-19.

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Open letter to the President of the Republic of Rwanda on proposals for measures to better manage the Covid-19 crisis in Rwanda

Mr. President,
We, the undersigned Rwandans living abroad, feel deeply sorry and stand in solidarity with our compatriots at home for the suffering and difficulties of all kinds that they are enduring during this harsh health crisis caused by coronavirus (COVID_19) pandemic. Many Rwandans, especially those living in rural areas, are living in economic precariousness as a result of the far-reaching change in the agricultural policy which has ruined their food security. The resulting rural exodus has created a high rise in urban population living from hand to mouth because of an unsustainable economic boom that
has failed to create viable jobs.

We are confident that the age-old spirit of solidarity and resilience that characterizes the Rwandan people will enable them to valiantly weather this harsh ordeal. But for this to happen, the government will need to take on complaints and pragmatic advice from its concerned citizens, more than in the past. We ourselves are committed to continuing to reflect on a range of actions of solidarity that would enable us to alleviate the suffering of our compatriots at home, and we will communicate on this in due course. In the meantime, we are sending you, by this letter, a contribution in the form of a few ideas, which we consider useful and practical, easy to implement quickly in order to stem the harmful consequences of the measures your government continues to take to combat the COVID_19 crisis.

Some resources that can be mobilized rapidly

While waiting for the people, taken by surprise by this scourge, to recover and for both national and international solidarity to produce positive impact, we would like to draw your kind attention to the existence of a certain number of internal resources that can be immediately mobilized, in case they have escaped your attention and that of your collaborators.

It is worth remembering the Rwandan saying, “Ukena ufite itungo rikakugoboka”, which translates as, “When poverty knocks at the door, you rely on your savings”. It is important, indeed, that the population we are trying to save from the threat of COVID_19 is not swept away by hunger in their confinement. The damage would be far greater than the damage we want to avoid. It is also important that Rwandans be able to draw on their reserves first while waiting for help from elsewhere.

1. Appeal for support from the “AGACIRO” fund
This fund, which bears an evocative name of “Agaciro = Dignity” was launched in 2012, with the stated objective of promoting self-sufficiency among Rwandans and this within the framework of the master plan which aims to raise Rwanda’s human development from low to medium in 2020. It is time to take advantage of the results of this fund which at the end of 2017 reached 52.3 billion Rwandan francs, of which 41.8 billion Rwandan francs came from contributions, while 10.5 billion Rwandan francs came from the investment income of the same Agaciro Fund. This is the time to use all this money made from the sweat of the Rwandan citizens.

2. Appeal for support from the significant wealth held by the RPF party-state
As you know, Mr. President, the RPF, a political organization that came to power in Rwanda a quarter of a century ago, is among the richest, if not the richest political party in the world. As of 30/07/2017, the RPF was already considered as the country’s largest private employer, whose assets were estimated at some 500 million dollars. In your capacity as the chairman of the Party and President, in these difficult times, your party, the RPF could make a gesture of empathy towards the Rwandan people, by taking some of its immense wealth and help the most needy.

3. Release of prisoners in Rwandan prisons
Currently and officially, there are around 75,000 prisoners in the official Rwandan prisons. As you know, Mr. President, on March 25, 2020, even the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Ms. BACHELET Michelle recommended to governments to release “every person detained without sufficient legal basis, including political prisoners, and those detained for critical, dissenting views”, as part of the fight against COVID_19. This recommendation makes a lot of sense, particularly in the case of Rwanda where many prisoners have been locked up for several years without files. This would not only prevent the spread of the coronavirus epidemic in these prison environments but would also free up financial resources that could be immediately mobilized to help the most
vulnerable members of the population. It is true that, as of 1 April 2020, the General Prosecutor has sent a directive to the prosecutors to do so; but the directive is accompanied by vague and limiting conditionalities and only a small segment of the prison population could benefit from it.

4. The ISHEMA RYACU Fund set up at the time of General Karake’s arrest in London on June 20, 2015

You will recall, Mr. President, that General Emmanuel Karenzi Karake, then head of the fearsome National Intelligence and Security Service, was arrested in 2015 in London on the basis of a European arrest warrant issued by Spain. He could only be released on bail of 1 million pounds ($1.5 million) obtained by mobilising the contributions of the Rwandan people. This sum can and should be used immediately to support the most vulnerable sections of the population.

5. Repatriation of the funds stored in tax havens revealed in the “Panama Papers”
Finally, Mr President, a recent World Bank study, based on data from 22 countries, including Rwanda, showed that World Bank aid regularly falls into the hands of predators who are quick to make deposits in external banks where banking secrecy is guaranteed, such as Switzerland, Luxembourg, the Cayman Islands or Singapore. For example, the survey showed that the World Bank has made largesse to Rwanda, which in 2018 received double the aid it used to receive in previous years, rising to $545 million. Researchers discovered during the investigation that $190 million left Rwanda and was deposited in tax havens. These funds, and others like them, must, for reasons of morality and practical efficiency, be quickly returned to the country to be used to alleviate the people’s hardship in the face of this terrible coronavirus crisis.

Good use should be made of the funds from aid or credit facilities that the country may receive in these times
Mr. President, we learn that under the Rapid Credit Facility, the International Monetary Fund has just granted Rwanda a rapid concessional financial assistance of $109.4 million to help address the difficulties associated with managing the coronavirus pandemic. We dare hope that these funds, which the Rwandan taxpayer will have to pay back, will really serve to alleviate the difficulties faced by the most vulnerable and will not end up in the pockets and accounts of the regime’s powerful.
The vulnerable group includes people whose homes have been demolished. Indeed, many of us were surprised to see that while the storm ‘Covid_19’ was forecast, Kigali city officials sent demolition workers to destroy houses in Nyarutarama village. The whole world witnessed these inhuman operations, marked by cruelty and lack of sensitivity and empathy towards these poor families, brutally thrown into the street without any other help. Worse still, in your public intervention, you not only approved these operations to destroy these homes of the poor, but also reaffirmed what you said in 2014 that the demolition workers were kind because they could have swept the houses
with their occupants inside them without mercy.

Investment experiences not to be repeated in the future:
It has come to our attention that certain projects that have consumed huge amounts of public funds and that were commissioned under your full and complete responsibility, Mr. President, have turned out to be budgetary black holes.

  1. For example, it is reported that the OneWeb program to which you committed funds estimated at some $1.2 billion from Rwanda and other partners is bankrupt. It is known that decisions to commit those funds were made at your sole discretion. It is one of the projects whose contours remain unclear to many Rwandans. The people would benefit from a future ban on such practices in the management of public assets.
  2. The Rwandan carrier “RWANDAIR”, which has swallowed up large sums of money in recent years, is currently finding its planes grounded with a high probability of not being able to fly again. It should be recalled that despite the huge sums of public funds that have been injected into it, this white elephant project has always been in the red financially. This is further proof of the discrepancy between your investment choices in recent years and the good father’s predictions that should have been made.
  3. The ”Visit Rwanda” deals saw one of the poorest countries in the world afford to grant some 33 million euros to the Arsenal club and some 8 to 10 million euros per year – according to estimates to the Parisian club PSG. In the future, Mr. President, this kind of casino investment should be abandoned in favour of more realistic and more “good head of family ” practices.
  4. Mr. President, another budget-consuming item of recent years that will have to be regulated as soon as possible is your travels abroad. The following figures are frightening;

If there is one positive effect to be remembered from the current coronavirus crisis, it is that you have slowed down your taste for travel. The state coffers are certainly relieved. We note that most of the major meetings are currently conducted via teleconferences. We are delighted about this and we can only encourage you to continue to proceed in the same way even after the crisis.

Mr. President, it is clear that if the resources associated with all these projects mentioned above, and the list is not limited, had been invested in health projects, medical training, adequate payment of teachers, and other projects close to the concerns of the citizen, they would have been of great use to the Rwandan people in these difficult times.

All these projects and so many others of pure prestige will serve as lessons for those who are or will be in charge of our country in future to be pragmatic and far-sighted.

Most importantly, Mr. President, we propose that, as soon as we come out of this crisis, you should dare take firm decisions and agree to open up the Rwandan political space, the only way to free all the energies of the people of Rwanda currently being constrained by the frequent violations of human rights by the regime you lead.
In this regard, opposition groups have repeatedly reached out to you, offering to engage with all the active forces of the country. So far you have preferred to respond with contempt and witch hunt for the opponents.

We urge you, Mr. President, to re-examine your stance and listen, for once, to the voice of the people who are crying out for a change in mentalities and methods of governance and yearning for truth and freedom for all.
The signatories of the present letter are ready to make a positive contribution to a process of change towards lasting social peace can be initiated and achieved.

Done on April 9, 2020

The signatories:
1. Laurent Munyandilikirwa, Président de l’Observatoire des Droits de l’Homme au Rwanda (ODHR);
2. Emery Nshimiyimana, Secrétaire Général de la Fondation IBUKABOSE-RENGERABOSE, Mémoire et Justice pour tous ;
3. Jean Marie Ndagijimana, Coordinateur du Comité pour l’Unité, la Paix et la Réconciliation au Rwanda (CUPR) ;
4. René Mugenzi, Coordinateur de Global Campaign for Rwandans’s Human Rights (GCRHR);
5. Joseph Matata, Coordinateur du Centre de Lutte contre l’Impunité et l’Injustice au Rwanda (CLIIR);
6. Theobald Rutihunza, Président du Réseau International pour la Promotion et la Défense des Droits de l’Homme au Rwanda (RIPRODHOR) ;
7. Robert Mugabowindekwe, President de JAMBO asbl ;
8. Calixte Kanani, Coordinateur du Comité de Suivi de la Problématique des Réfugiés Rwandais (CSPR) ;
9. Aloys Simpunga, Initiative HUMURA ;
10. JMV Nyirimbirima, Chairperson the Global Voice of Rwandan Refugees (GVRR)
11. Stany Rwandarugari, Rwandan Platform for Dialogue, Truth, and Justice (RDTJ)
12. Marcelline Nyiranduwamungu, Présidente du Réseau international des Femmes pour la Démocratie et la Paix (RifDP);
13. Pascal Kalinganire, General Coordinator of the Organization for Peace, Justice and Development in Rwanda and Great Lakes Region (OPJDR);
14. Pierre Claver Nkinamubanzi, Président du Congrès rwandais du Canada (CRC);
15. Nelson Gatsimbazi, Rwandiska föreningen för mänskliga rättigheter (RFMR);
16. Rugema Kayumba, Norway Sub Sahara Africa development organisation(NSADO);
17. Celestin Muhindura, President of Rwanda National Forum (RNF);
18. Gilbert Mwenedata, Président de l’initiative du Peuple pour l’Alliance Démocratique (IPAD) ;
19. Emmanuel Mugenzi, Coordinator in charge of political matters, Rwandan Alliance for the National Pact (RANP-Abaryankuna) ;
20. Jean Damascène Munyampeta, Secrétaire Général du Pacte Démocratique du Peuple (PDP-IMANZI) ;
21. Général Emmanuel Habyarimana, Président de la Convention Nationale Républicaine (CNRIntwari) ;
22. JABO AKISHULI, Secrétaire Exécutif, UNITED FREEDOM FIGHTERS (UFF- INDANGAMIRWA);
23. Jerôme Nayigiziki, Coordinateur, RNC-Ihuriro ;
24. Jean Baptiste Ryumugabe, Coordinateur PSI-Imberakuri ;
25. Etienne Masozera, Président AMAHORO-PC ;
26. Justin Bahunga, Président FDU-INKINGI;
27. Nadine Claire Kasinge, Présidente ISHEMA PARTY;
28. Anastase Gasana, President Democratic Rwanda Party, DRP-ABASANGIZI;
29. Paul Rusesabagina, Vice President, Mouvement Rwandais pour le Changement Démocratique (MRCD)

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Kagame Propaganda On Food Distribution Backfired – Minister Nduhungirehe Caught Redhanded Lying

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Wonders never cease in General Paul Kagame’s Rwanda.

His minister Olivier Nduhungirehe used a picture of super market he stole from the internet to convince the world that Rwanda is massively distributing food to the poor. This is part of regime’s propaganda that it is distributing food to the poor across Rwanda to save them from starvation after the regime imposed a total lockdown in response to Covid19 lockdown. This claim is bogus.

According to the World Bank data, 55.5 percent of Rwandans are poor – they live on less than US$1.90 a day. Which means that 6.6 million out of 12 million Rwandans are poor. If the Kagame regime were to pay the 6.6 million poor people US$1.90 a day in lost income due to the lockdown, that would amount to US$12.5 million in just one day. This translates into US$62.5 million for a five-day working week. The regime does not have that kind of money. And, of course, the regime’s claim that it is distributing food to the poor is a big lie.

That is how Kagame minister Nduhungirehe entered the picture. He proclaimed on Twitter that “National solidarity is a core value of the people of Rwanda” and that the Rwanda government has “started the distribution of food and essential goods for the most vulnerable, who were affected by measures to prevent COVID19 from further spreading.”

Food stuff

There was one problem, however. The minister’s proof that Rwanda is distributing food proved to be false. The minister hunted on the internet a stock photo of super market somewhere out there. Nduhungirehe was immediately caught redhanded by Twitter users. There goes another shameful chapter in the Kagame regime’s crude propaganda that does not add up.

David Himbara, Ph D

medium.com

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Rwanda, covid-19: another lunatic measure!

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In Rwanda, wonders shall never end! During this time of COVID-19 and the lockdown measures decreeted by Kigali Government, another lunatic decision was made: an online teaching platform.  A wonderful idea, isn’t it? But something is rotten. Follow me!

reb

Rwanda Education Board announces the setting up of an online learning initiative. However, the teaching platform requires other tools such as computers, tablets or smartphone; power and internet connection. All these are not available to rwandan students, especially in rural areas.

According to CIA Factbook about 3, 7 million people used internet in 2017, that is about 30% of the total population. By June 2019, internet subscriptions are said to be 6.2 millions representing 51.6% ( RURA 2018-2019 report). Knowing how the government uses cooked statistics, let us keep it as it is for now.  The most appaling is electricity availability. The number of customers with access to electricity is 951,613 (less than a million)  with an annual energy supply equivalent to 854,183.87 MWh (for home and industrial consumption).  One should recall that the total population is a little more than 12 millions!

rura trend

It is important to note that currently, based on REB statistics, Rwanda has more than 1 million enrolled students (secondary, vocational and tertiary schools).

What about computers, tablets and/ or smartphones? Here is what Rwandans have to say:

reactionreb

The government of Rwanda intends to impress the international community by putting in place far-fetched solutions which cannot fit into the national context. No machines, no electricity and no internet, yet you pretend to run an online teaching platform!

What’s a lunacy! Wonders shall never end.

Chaste Gahunde

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Comment les Banyamulenge sont devenus Congolais sans vraiment l’être

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Comment les « Banyamulenge » sont devenus Congolais sans vraiment l’être
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Comme nous ne le savons tous, les « Banyamulenge » prétendent qu’ils sont originaires du Congo; ils déclarent à qui veut l’entendre qu’ils sont Congolais au même titre que les autochtones de ce pays. Mais que disent donc les faits, pour ne pas dire l’Histoire ?

Puisque la question de la nationalité congolaise est au cœur des revendications des « Banyamulenge », c’est donc autour de celle-ci que je vais articuler mon analyse. Cette dernière va porter sur l’historique de la nationalité congolaise à travers les grandes périodes de l’Histoire du Congo-Zaïre que l’on peut subdiviser en six périodes :

1. La période antérieure à la création de l’État Indépendant du Congo (EIC).
2. La période de l’État Indépendant du Congo (1885-1908).
3. La période coloniale (1908-1960).
4. La période prémobutienne (1960-1965).
5. La période mobutienne (1965-1997)
6. De la période AFDLienne à nos jours (1997-…)

Durant la première période, celle antérieure à la création de l’EIC, la notion de nationalité congolaise n’existait pas pour la simple et bonne raison que l’État congolais n’était pas encore créé. Toutefois, chaque individu appartenait à une tribu. Celle-ci était définie par les attributs suivants : la langue, le territoire et les coutumes. Même si la cartographie géographique n’était pas connue à l’époque, chaque tribu connaissait cependant les limites exactes de son territoire de telle sorte que, malgré les migrations, on ne pouvait pas venir s’installer n’importe où sans courir le risque d’en découdre avec le premier occupant d’un territoire donné. Dans le cas qui nous concerne, le territoire du Kivu revendiqué par certains immigrants rwandophones (Goma, Walikale, Rutshuru, Masisi, Kalehe et Idjwi) était occupé en premier lieu par les Shi et les Hunde après avoir chassé les pygmées. Ce sont ces deux tribus qui se sont donc approprié les terres conquises. Quant à la conquête ultérieure de ce même territoire par les rois Tutsis du Rwanda (RUGANZU II, NDORI et KIGERI IV, RWABUGIRI), aucun fait historique ne vient accréditer cette thèse, comme le démontre le professeur Assani, qui a produit une analyse interessante sur la question.

Durant la seconde période (celle de l’EIC-1885-1908), la situation change. Pour la première fois, la notion de nationalité congolaise est définie par décret le 27 décembre 1892. L’article premier de ce décret dit clairement que « la nationalité congolaise s’acquiert par la naissance sur le territoire de l’État de parents congolais, par la naturalisation, par la présomption de la loi et par l’option ». Il en découle que la nationalité congolaise d’origine procède du système du jus soli (né au Congo) et de celui du jus sanguinis (de parents congolais). Ce décret aurait-il attribué la nationalité congolaise aux immigrants rwandophones installés au Congo en 1892 ? Pas sûr. L’autorité coloniale belge savait pertinemment bien que les ressortissants rwandophones installés au Kivu étaient des immigrés qui ne jouissaient d’aucun droit politique ni foncier. N’étant donc pas nés sur le sol de l’EIC, ils ne pouvaient pas obtenir la nationalité congolaise au même titre que les autochtones. Durant toute cette période, aucun Rwandophone ne semble s’être prévalu de la nationalité congolaise.

La période coloniale (1908-1960) est celle qui a connu une immigration importante et soutenue des rwandophones au Congo, dans le cadre entre autres de la Mission d’Immigration de Banyarwanda (MIB), dont il a été question dans un texte précédent. Pendant toute cette période, l’autorité belge n’a jamais promulgué une nouvelle loi sur la nationalité congolaise de telle sorte que seules les personnes nées des parents congolais se sont transmis la nationalité congolaise de génération en génération par filiation.

Durant la période prémobutienne (1960-1965), le Congo a été confronté à plusieurs exodes massifs (1959, 1962 et 1963) des populations tutsies rwandaises fuyant leur pays suite à la Révolution sociale hutu de 1959. C’est durant cette période que la première loi sur la nationalité congolaise a été promulguée. Cette loi, édictée en 1964 par la Constitution dite de « Luluabourg », stipulait que : « Est congolais, au terme de l’article 6 de la Constitution, à la date du 30 juin 1960, toute personne dont un des ascendants est ou a été membre d’une des tribus établies sur le territoire de la République démocratique du Congo dans ses limites du 18 octobre 1908 et telles que modifiées par les conventions ultérieures ». À l’instar du décret du 27/12/ 1892, cette loi n’attribue à aucun immigrant rwandophone la nationalité congolaise.

Toutefois un événement significatif se produisit à cette même période suite à l’accession du Rwanda à l’indépendance, en 1962 : la promulgation d’une loi sur la nationalité rwandaise. Cette dernière stipule que « est Rwandais, tout individu né d’un père rwandais ou dont la possession d’État Rwandais est établie ». Fondée sur le droit du sang, cette loi attribua d’office la nationalité rwandaise à tous les immigrants rwandophones installés depuis longtemps au Congo-Zaïre sans demander leur avis. Depuis la promulgation de ladite loi, aucun de ces immigrants n’a protesté ni renoncé à cette nationalité. En définitive, on peut donc dire que c’est à l’indépendance du Rwanda que la nationalité rwandaise des Rwandophones vivant au Congo a été confirmée. De plus, le statut de réfugiés des exilés tutsis installés au Congo (ceux qui se feront plus tard appeler « Banyamulenge ») durant cette période a été confirmé dans une note du Haut-commissariat des Nations Unies pour les Réfugiés (HCR), qui les enjoignait à ne pas s’impliquer dans aucune activité politique que ce soit sur le territoire congolais.

Si jusqu’ici la question de la nationalité congolaise des Rwandophones vivant au Congo n’a posé aucun problème, c’est à partir de la période mobutienne (1965-1997) que va réellement surgir la problématique des tutsis rwandais vivant au Congo. On va assister à des revendications de plus en plus virulentes, non pas de tous les Rwandophones, mais bien d’un groupe de Tutsis arrivés au Congo au début des années 1960, comme susmentionné.

Durant la Deuxième République qui a vu le Congo devenir le Zaïre, trois lois sur la nationalité furent promulguées. S’agissant des populations rwandophones, la première ordonnance-loi (n° 71-020), édictée le 26 mars 1971, stipulait que « les personnes originaires du Ruanda-Urundi établies au Congo à la date du 30 juin 1960 sont réputées avoir la nationalité zaïroise à la date susdite ».

Comme on peut le constater, cette loi fait la différence entre les Congolais d’origine et « les personnes ORIGINAIRES du Ruanda-Urundi » établies au Congo avant l’indépendance. En passant, le Rwanda-Urundi, c’est ce qui est devenu aujourd’hui le Rwanda et le Burundi…

Quelques mois après la promulgation de la loi du 26 mars 1971, une autre loi sur la nationalité est promulguée le 5 janvier 1972, référencée sous le n° 72-002. À son article 47, elle énonce : « L’ordonnance-loi n° 71-020 du 26 mars 1971 est nulle et non avenue. Toutes les dispositions législatives antérieures contraires à la présente loi sont annulées ». Au premier article, alinéa 2, cette loi stipule : « Sont Zaïrois, aux termes de l’article 5 de la Constitution, à la date du 30 juin 1960, toutes les personnes dont un des ascendants est ou a été membre d’une des tribus établies sur le territoire de la République du Zaïre dans ses limites du 15 novembre 1908 et telles que modifiées par les conventions ultérieures.» S’agissant des populations rwandophones, l’article 15 de la loi énonce : « Les personnes originaires du Ruanda-Urundi, qui étaient établies dans la province du Kivu avant le 1er janvier 1950 et qui ont continué à résider depuis lors dans la République du Zaïre jusqu’à l’entrée en vigueur de la présente loi, ont acquis la nationalité zaïroise à la date du 30 juin 1960. »

Deux observations à faire ici : 1) la seconde loi (no 72-002) annule les dispositions de la première (référencée sous le n° 71-020) en réaffirmant le principe de la définition de la nationalité d’origine par appartenance. 2) Toutefois, cette même loi (no 72-002), dans son article 15, octroie la nationalité congolaise aux sujets rwandophones.

Détail important : cette seconde loi, qui octroie la nationalité zaïroise au sujets rwandophones présents au Zaïre, a été instituée par un autre rwandophone évoluant dans les arcanes du pouvoir zaïrois, notamment dans le cabinet du Président Mobutu : le Tutsi Barthelemy Bisengimana. Ce dernier a été l’un des artisans de la stratégie d’infiltration des institutions zaïroises et d’autres pays de la région par les Tutsis exilés arrivés au début des années 1960. Dans les années 1970 déjà, Bisengeimana avait attiré l’attention des services de renseignement zaïrois qui, à la suite d’une longue enquête menée au Rwanda, au Burundi, en Tanzanie, au Kivu et au Katanga, avaient découvert qu’il était à la tête d’un redoutable réseau d’exilés tutsis aux ambitions obscures et démesurées. C’est à ce réseau que devait appartenir Paul Kagame qui évoluait à l’époque en Ouganda.

À la différence des Tutsis exilés [va-t-en-guerre] qui avaient tenté, en vain, de reconquérir le pouvoir au Rwanda par les armes en 1963 et 1966, Bisengimana, lui, préconisait une stratégie à long terme privilégiant l’accès à l’éducation pour les jeunes tutsis dans les pays d’accueil et l’établissement des liens d’amitié partout où cela s’avérait nécessaire. L’option militaire ne devait être relancée qu’une fois les réfugiés bien organisés et mieux outillés. C’est dans cette optique que les exilés tutsis ont bâti un vaste « réseau » s’étendant sur tous les continents avec des antennes dans les milieux politiques en Occident et dans les pays de la région. La création du FPR en Ouganda par Fred Rwigema et Paul Kagame s’inscrivait dans cette dynamique. Au Zaïre, il y avait Bisengimana et un certain nombre de notables tutsis, dont un certain Gisaro Muhoza. Ce dernier, l’éminence grise des exilés tutsis vivant au Zaïre, est à l’origine du nom « Banyamulenge » en 1976. Profitant de la loi sur la nationalité initiée par son frère Bisengimana, il va postuler et se faire élire, après une élection contestée, comme commissaire du peuple (Député) à Uvira. Fermons la parenthèse et revenons à l’analyse de la loi 72-002. Que constate-t-on ?

Bien que cette loi soit la seule qui attribue la nationalité zaïroise aux immigrants rwandophones, elle présente deux écueils majeurs sur lesquels je ne vais pas m’attarder ici. Ce qu’il importe de savoir, c’est que, contrairement à la pensée répandue, la loi 72-002 n’a jamais été appliquée dans les normes, puisque le recensement permettant d’identifier les sujets visés dans son article 15 n’a jamais eu lieu. C’est donc en toute illégalité que certains Rwandais ont acquis la nationalité zaïroise en se référant à la loi du 5 janvier 1972. Un autre point important: cet article ne concernait pas les «Banyamulenge» qui sont arrivés au début des années 1960, mais bien les Rwandophones arrivés avant le 1er janvier 1950…

Constatant l’anticonstitutionalité de cette loi et ayant pris conscience du danger qu’elle représentait, le législateur congolais promulgua une troisième loi sur la nationalité le 29 juin 1981, portant le n° 81-002. Cette loi abrogea avec effet rétroactif la loi de 1972. Mais c’est l’ordonnance n° 82-061 du 15 mai 1982 complétant cette nouvelle loi qui porta un coup dur aux desseins des « Banyamulenge » vivant au Congo-Zaïre. L’énoncé de cette ordonnance-loi portant certaines mesures d’exécution de la loi sur la nationalité disposait en effet, en son article 20 : « Sont nuls et non avenus les certificats de nationalité zaïroise ou tout autre document d’identité délivré en application de l’article 15 de la loi n° 72-002 du 5 janvier 1972 sur la nationalité zaïroise. » Par conséquent, tous les sujets Rwandophones, qui ont obtenu la nationalité zaïroise en se prévalant de la loi 72-002, ont automatiquement perdu cette nationalité.

À l’époque, les « Banyamulenge », furieux, ont écrit un mémo au secrétaire général de l’OUA. Voici un extrait de leur correspondance : « Grâce à notre influence grandissante dans le pays, certains de nos compatriotes occupent des postes de première importance. C’est ainsi, suite au soutien personnel de Son Excellence le président Mobutu Sese Seko, à cette époque-là, une loi sur la nationalité globale fut promulguée en 1972 et qui nous reconnaissait le droit à la citoyenneté zaïroise. »

On constate ici que les « Banyamulenge » fondent leur revendication de la nationalité zaïroise (congolaise) en se référant à la loi n° 72-002 du 5 janvier 1972 instituée par leur frère. Aucune allusion à une quelconque origine zaïroise…

Aujourd’hui, le problème identitaire au Kivu a été résolu sans équivoque. L’article 10 de la dernière mouture de la Constitution congolaise approuvée par référendum le 19 décembre 2005 stipule : « Est Congolais d’origine, toute personne appartenant aux groupes ethniques dont les personnes et le territoire constituaient ce qui est devenu le Congo (présentement la RDC) à l’indépendance. »

Au regard de tout ce qui précède, on peut affirmer, sans crainte d’être contredit par les petits « historiens de Wikipédia » qui intoxiquent certains Congolais naïfs et/ou intellectuellement paresseux, que les « Banyamulenge » ne sont pas originaires de la RDC; que depuis l’arrivée de tous les immigrants rwandophones au Congo en vagues successives, aucune loi ne leur a attribué globalement et définitivement la nationalité congolaise. C’est donc par les armes (en 1996-97, puis en août 1998), le mensonge et la fourberie que les « Banyamulenge » vont obtenir la nationalité congolaise sans vraiment devenir des vrais congolais, mettant ainsi à mal les autres populations rwandophones qui désirent vivre en paix avec leurs frères de la RDC et qui ont le droit d’obtenir la nationalité congolaise au même titre que tout étranger désirant faire du Congo sa seconde patrie. J’y reviendrai dans la troisième partie…

Patrick MBEKO

The Debts of Dictators : who will pay back Kagame’s debts?

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FB_IMG_1576138428060“The Debts of Dictators “

So,I’ve just learned that Rwanda’ President Paul Kagame auctioned part of Rwanda by selling for “eternity” the Bugesera International Airport to the Emir of Qatar(60% of stakes ).

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Appolinaire NISHIRIMBERE

I immediately remembered a documentary watched while at AFRODAD Summer School, edition 2019 in Pretoria: “The Debt of Dictators “.
The one-hour documentary film shows how dictators contract loans with international financial institutions like World Bank (WB, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and others and consequently the price poor citizens pay to repay. It’s horrible and odious. For example, people say that South Africa is rich, right ? Did you know how much the apartheid government contradicted for its army, police and other white owned infrastructures?

All those loans were contracted to repress black South Africans. The apartheid debt is now being expensively repaid by the poor South Africans. It was heartbreaking to see that there are even some communities who wish to get infected with HIV/AIDS just to benefit from social assistance as the ANC Government is repaying billions of dollars as part of apartheid loans, annually.

Now the question is : why should financial institutions keep pumping money into governments like the government of Rwanda while they are aware that the same money is being used to repress and torture citizens and opponents ? Who will repay it as even the poor children are born with debt?

Why do IMF , World Bank and some Governments keep funding a Government which is funding in return with billions of US dollars big western soccer teams like Arsenal and PSG while the money given is intended to fund grassroots wellbeing? Is this normal and fair ?

Why dictators prefer foreign loans instead of domestic resources mobilization to fund national economies ? Part of the answer is that if citizens directly pay in taxes for their economic development , their governments will be accountable and citizens will demand for accountability, and therefore participate in management of their countries.

While loans are easy to get, the said documentary contends that some of the international bankers are like lawyers, they even support criminals , dictators as long as their interest is secured no matter who will repay the price. Therefore, loans benefit the industrialized countries and keep developing countries poorer and poorer as they reimburse their debts huge interests. Now you can understand who help who and why.

Hummm ! Haven’t you said that President Kagame is the smartest African leader who is miraculously developing Rwanda ? My African friends, he is rubbing with western bankers and Asian sultans and Emirs. Is he developing Rwanda or giving it as bank guarantee ? Who will repay his debt, not poor Rwandan taxpayers, years after him ? Remember some of those sovereign loans are paid back even after 4 decades or more and affect the most vulnerable (women and children) when those who are answerable will have passed away like in the case of South Africa today.

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Rwanda’s national airport sold to Qatar.

Africans , wake up and stop selling your continent, engage in win win cooperation which benefits the poor.

Source: Appolinaire Nishirimbere (facebook page).

Another gambling of Kagame’s: he sells national airport to Qatar for eternity!

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Bugesera Airport_Rwanda_copped

Bugesera  Airport under construction

KAGAME GAMBLES AGAIN:

1. Kagame has kicked out “Mota Engil Engenharia e Construcao Africa”, (Mota Engil), from Bugesera airport construction “deal”!

The “investor” had signed a “deal” with Kagame junta to construct and manage Bugesera airport for 25 years, with the option to extend the “deal” for 15 years.

Construction of Bugesera airport commenced. However, Kagame developed misunderstandings with Mota Engil, for undisclosed reasons.

Today, Kagame signed a new “deal” with the Emir of Qatar, to construct and manage the airport in perpetuity. Qatar air, which is Qatar government owned airline, will own 60% stake in Bugesera airport.

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Rwanda’s dictator Kagame (L) and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim (R).

Issue:
a) A 60% stakeholder has unlimited power over the business. Qatar government will therefore have unlimited power over Bugesera airport. This is fixed asset business. Bugesera airport will probably be a Sovereign (Qatar) in another Sovereign (Rwanda). How will the two Sovereigns, each led by an insane absolute leader, work together?

b) An international airport bears on many public policy areas and priorities. How will Rwanda design, prioritize and implement its public policy that touches on Bugesera airport, owned by another Sovereign, 60% stake?

c) Mota Engil, the company Kagame kicked out, has threatened to take on Rwanda in Court, probably in Washington DC or New York, for breach of contract. Rwanda is likely to lose millions of US dollars in litigation and compensating Mota Engil. For which proportional good has Kagame taken this highly risky route, in legal, economic and political terms?

2. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Emirates – Qatar’s neighboring countries – accuse Qatar of supporting terrorists in the region. Kagame is accused of supporting terrorism in the region. Moustapha, the major sponsor of terrorists in the Sahel is now based in Kigali. Moustapha is Emir of Qatar and Kagame’s “business” associate and partners-in-crime.
Issue:
d) Should the Great Lakes Region of Africa expect unimaginable acts of terrorism, with DRC becoming a failed State and the center of Kagame’s “brand” of International terrorism?

3. Qatar’s neighbors have banned overflights to Qatar, including Qatar air, because the government of Qatar is real headache to the entire region.
Issue:
e) Qatar is in disparate need of an airport, over which the Emir of Qatar has absolute control, from which Qatar will coordinate international terrorism and distribute contrabands. Why is Kagame determined to provide such facility to Qatar?
f) Where does this “deal” leave Kagame with Western democracies, Saudi Arabia, Israel, etc., who support and sustain Qatar’s regional isolation?

g) What does this deal mean for physical security in the Great Lakes Region of Africa?

h) Will Kagame remain loyal to Qatar or he will change his mind and kick Qatar out of the “deal”? The cost will probably be unbearable, for Kagame and his junta, either way.

Professor Charles Kambanda,  PhD

The danger of unchallenged myth: The lie that is Rwandan President Paul Kagame.

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1*9mch3Fn5a2fXGPQ7M-Byng@2xThe danger of an unchallenged myth: The lie that is Rwandan President Paul Kagame

by  

When I set about writing this, two poignant quotes kept bouncing around in my head, which describe everything I want to express in this column. The first, by Martin Luther King goes thus: “Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.” The second quote, from a speech by US President John F. Kennedy at Yale University goes thus: “For the great enemy of truth is very often not the lie — deliberate, contrived and dishonest — but the myth — persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.”

These two quotes perfectly sum up my views on the sudden appearance of Paul Kagame as a kite being flown within Nigerian political and policy circles. Regardless of who is behind the sudden emergence of an East African strongman as a purported example for Nigerian or African leadership, it is very important to question and challenge this dangerous narrative before it takes root and begins to infect national decision making, as is so often the case. The case for Kagame-style leadership as a panacea to African development issues hinges on two major beliefs: that Kagame is a “benevolent dictator” who leads with his country’s interests in mind, and that he is a “competent dictator” who knows how to get things done and achieve results.

Let us briefly interrogate these two notions.

The ‘benevolent dictator’ is fictional

What is most commonly used to sell the myth of Paul Kagame is the idea that he is some sort of patriotic strongman – the father of the modern Rwandan nation who came in like a hero at the country’s darkest hour to steer it away from genocidal division toward the cusp of a 21st century economic breakout. His “example” is typically cited by non-Rwandan Africans as a stark contrast to their incompetent and corrupt (elected) governments. “If only Kagame’s peers across Africa could be like him! Africa would be so developed by now!”

This myth conveniently ignores some very inconvenient facts that tell a completely different story about who Kagame is and what the modern state of Rwanda is actually built on. First of all, Kagame’s portrayal as a hero in the context of the events of 1994 could not be wider of the mark. It often comes as a shock to many who discover upon some cursory reading, that there was a second genocide happening almost concurrently in Rwanda as well as in neighbouring Burundi and Eastern DRC in 1994. This genocide, which was characterised by massacres and rapes of hundreds of thousands of Hutu civilians and refugees between 1990 and 1996, was twice recognised the UN in 1997 and 1998 as a genocide under Article 2 of the 1948 Genocide Convention.

Paul Kagame’s Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), and later on his Rwandan-backed Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo-Zaire (AFDL), were repeatedly implicated in these sordid events, but the sheer ferocity of the 1994 Tutsi genocide perhaps allowed him to fly under the radar as the lesser of two evils. By invoking the memory of April 1994 at every opportunity, Kagame has successfully convinced the world to forget that he was in fact, a tribal warlord fighting an illegitimate war against an elected government, before a series of “convenient” events led him into power in Kigali.

What Kagame really is more than anything else, is an opportunist – the ruthless winner who got to write history and cynically exploit the world’s emotions by presenting a complicated – and by no means concluded – conflict as a 3-month spurt of madness that he heroically ended. Rather than contextualise the Rwandan genocide as part of a wider African Great Lakes regional crisis, and acknowledge the ongoing role of the Kagame regime in destabilising and plundering the Eastern DRC, Africa and the world have falled for his contrived and carefully cultivated leadership myth, allowing him to repeatedly escape difficult questions.

Difficult questions like: “Why do Rwandan opposition members keep going missing?” “How did he get 99 percent of the votes cast in the 2017 Rwandan election?” “Why is Diane Rwigara in prison?” “Why does his government regularly seize, expropriate and auction homes, property and businesses belonging to government critics?” “How come Rwanda has barely any coltan deposits, but is one of the world’s largest coltan exporters, while coincidentally sharing a border with the Eastern DRC which has extensive coltan deposits and an everlasting civil war fueled by armed groups linked to Kigali?” “How many civilian massacres and mass rapes did the RPF under his leadership carry out between 1990 and 1996?”  “Why did he respond to a 2006 report by French magistrate Jean-Louis Bruguière, linking him to the assassination of former Rwandan president Juvenal Habyarimana by breaking off Rwanda’s diplomatic relationship with France?”

In an alternate universe, Paul Kagame would be answering questions about RPF war crimes and his role in the events of 1994 at the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) in Arusha, Tanzania. Instead, because of the power of the “benevolent dictator” myth, this charming, narcissistic Mobutu Sese Seko regen with a nice smile and good PR is currently the toast of many within Africa’s ironically-termed intelligentsia.

The ‘competent dictator’ is another myth

When Customs Controller General, Col. Hamid Ali recently made a comment comparing Nigeria’s nonsensical border closure to China’s alleged border closure in the 20th century, it was a sign that Nigeria’s government has moved on from selling myths and inaccurate information to Nigerians, and started formulating real policies with long term consequences based on false information. Why this worried me was that it presented the possibility of a scenario where the Kagame myth will be used as a basis for policy and political moves that will destroy our hard-won democratic freedoms and wreck our economy for nothing.

If an MDA head and his boss in Aso Rock are making policy decisions based on Chinese ‘historical events’ that simply did not happen, they can also make decisions based on a Rwandan success story that is entirely fictional. As of today, for example, Rwanda has roughly one doctor per 15,600 people. To put that in perspective, Nigeria has roughly one doctor per 2,500 people, and it is widely accepted that this figure represents a healthcare emergency. Rwanda’s per capita GDP is also a miserable $850, putting it behind Chad and war-torn Yemen, and just ahead of economic powerhouses like Haiti, Afghanistan and South Sudan. In 25 years since seizing power, Paul Kagame’s regime has managed to pave just 1,000km of the country’s 12,000km of roads – about 8.3 percent of the total road network.

Even in the famously clean and shiny capital city Kigali, only the most important roads are paved, with the majority of streets still brown earthroads. Most tellingly, anything from 30 to 50 percent of Rwanda’s national budget is still funded by foreign aid every year, more than a quarter of a century after Paul Kagame seized power. Behind the shiny, clean streets of Kigali and the PR-savviness of Kagame’s regime, complete with poverty statistics manipulated to look good as discovered recently by the Financial Times, Rwanda remains a dirt poor banana republic populated by impoverished and terrified people.

If there is such a thing as a “competent dictatorship,” Rwanda is not it, and I cannot stress this point enough. The economically illiterate decision to self harm by closing the borders without sorting out any of the underlying issues that make imported goods more competitive, is an example of ruinous national decision decision-making based on myths like “the Chinese closed their borders.”

Hopefully, we won’t have to learn the hard way that the myth of Paul Kagame – no matter how much we want to believe in it – is just a myth.

David HUNDEYIN

Businessday.ng

The Financial Times says Rwanda has manipulated its economic data.

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On Tuesday, in a lengthy investigation using data journalists, the Financial Times said Rwanda has manipulated its poverty statistics. In 2015, France 24 had already reported that Kigali had fiddled with its economic statistics.

Four years ago credible insider sources told France 24 that Rwanda had manipulated its poverty statistics. Now, the Financial Times, using data journalists, has reached the same conclusion. The manipulation took place just before a referendum in 2015 that allowed President Paul Kagame to extend his then 15-year rule for up to another two decades. Within this context, Kagame could not accept statistics which would show that poverty had risen.

The FT writes that its “analysis of the survey’s more than 14,000 data points and interviews with academics shows that rising prices for Rwandan families meant poverty most likely increased between 2010 and 2014”. The English daily adds that “there has been a consistent attempt since 2015 to misrepresent the results” regarding poverty.

Rwanda has rejected the newspaper’s findings, as has the World Bank – at least officially, for the FT also published Tuesday for the first time an internal letter that five World Bank staff members wrote to the institution’s leaders in 2015. The authors voiced their concern over what they called “the manipulation of official statistics and failure to provide reliable data openly”.

“Recent developments point to potentially serious reputational risks for the Bank if its Rwanda operations continue in the current trajectory,” the letter said.

Source: France24

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